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《Journal of Beijing Forestry Unversity (Social Sciences)》 2003-02
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Status Quo, Causes and Analysis of China's Climate Change

Li Mingzhi 1, Yuan Jiazu 2, Li Jianjun 31.Editorial Department, Beijing Forestry University, 100083, P. R. China; 2. School of Resources and Environment, Beijing Forestry University, 100083, P. R. China; 3. Hubei College of Biological and Ecological Technologies,Wuhan 430020,P.R.China  
Subjected to the integrated influence of mans activities and astronomical and natural factors, Chinas annual average temperature has risen by 0 68℃ since 1950s, with a rise of 0 80~1 20℃ in the northern region and a fall of 0 20~0 80℃ in the southern of the Yellow River; the change of annual precipitation is similar to that of temperature, with a decrease in the north and an increase in the south, hence worsening the condition of flood in the south and drought in the north simultaneously. Through simulated forecast, the paper holds that the warmer climate beginning from 1987 in China will last till 2015, low temperature period will occur in 2016 and warmer phase wont appear until 2039; that by 2020 the national annual average temperature will be 1 68℃ higher compared with that in 1950s while in the western region, 2 22℃; that annual precipitation will increase 28 mm in the south with little change in the north; and that sea level will be 5 3~14 2 cm higher in 2030 with a warmer and drier trend in climate.
【CateGory Index】: P46
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