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《Journal of Beijing Forestry University》 2003-03
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Simulation of changes in spatial pattern of land use in Horqin desert and its outer area

Zhang Yongmin; Zhao Shidong; Zhang Kebin.Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, P.R. China.  
Due to over cultivation, over grazing, and other unreasonable land use methods, Horqin desert and its outer area in northern China have experienced significant land use changes, among which the decrease of grassland and agriculture expansion were the most important, which are contributing to severe environmental problems such as extension of desertification. The objective of this paper is to simulate changes in the land use pattern of Horqin desert and its outer area between 1985 and 2000. So, a land use change model, CLUE S, is presented for this simulation. It is based upon an empirical analysis of the spatial distribution of land use types in the study area which takes into account socioeconomic as well as geographical variables. The empirical analysis indicates that a reasonably complete description of land use distribution can be made by including slope, soil types, the distribution of settlement, and proximity to roads as variables. The quantity of land use types from 1985 to 2000 is obtained by linear interpolation of the real area in 1985 and 2000. The result shows that CLUE S is capable of classifying correctly 91 5% of the grid cells, for four categories: cultivated land and settlement (including villages and towns), forest, grassland, unused land and water. Kappa equals 0 90 in the simulation at the basic grid level (1 500 m×1 500 m). It can be concluded that the model, CLUE S, constructed in this study is an important tool to explore near future land use change and is valuable for environmental management in Horqin desert and its outer area.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 (G19990 43 40 4 0 4);; 国家自然科学基金项目 ( 3 9970 610 )资助
【CateGory Index】: F323.21
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