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《Journal of Beijing Forestry University》 2008-S1
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Comparative research on forecasting models of diameter growth of trees based on rescale range analysis and grey theory.

LUO Xu~(1,2) CHENG Cheng-qi~1 FENG Zhong-ke~3 YUE De-peng~3 CHEN Xiao-xue~3 1 School of Earth and Space Science,Peking University,100871,P.R.China;2 China National Institute of Metrology,Beijing,100013,P.R.China;3 Institute of GIS,RS & GPS,Beijing Forestry University,100083,P.R.China.  
Based on the data of parse trees,this paper described whole trunk form of parse trees of Pinus armandii and Quercus aliena var.acuteserrata in Xiaolong Mountains,Gansu Province,northwestern China and analyzed the growth process adopting the R/S (rescale range analysis).The results show the Hurst index values increased with the increase of ages,and the Hurst index forecasting model of diameter growth was set up.According to grey theory and Hurst index,the grey forecasting model (GM (1.1)) of P.armandii and Q.aliena var.acuteserrata was established and the dynamic variation characteristics of diameter growth were analyzed.The results of R/S analysis reflect the fractal characteristics of dynamic diameter growth with time, and lay the basis for dynamic supervision of forest resources.
【Fund】: “863”国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2006AA706209-2);; 国家自然科学基金项目(90302014)
【CateGory Index】: S711
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