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《Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion》 2003-06
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The formula for estimating the probability of finding HLA-matched unrelated marrow donor and its application

Zhao Tongmao,National Institutes of Health,Bethesda,Maryland,USA  
Objective Establishment of a simple mathematic method to estimate the probability (P) of finding a HLA antigen matched unrelated donor for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and determine the optimal size of unrelated donor pool.Methods Assuming a Hardy Weinberg equilibrium of underlying population,HLA haplotype frequencies were estimated from phenotype data in the donor pool.The curve of P value was established on the basis of HLA haplotype frequency.Logarithmic curve fitting method was used to derive a regression equation to calculate P value.Results The formula of P=-0.67+0.25lgN was provided by the author to roughly estimate the probability of finding an HLA A,B,DR antigen matched unrelated Chinese donor.N is the number of donors in the pool and between 50 000 to a million.Approximately 80% patients could find a matched donor at HLA antigen level in a pool of 750 000 donors.Conclusion The probability of finding HLA matched donor depends on the pool size and HLA haplotype frequencies.HLA population genetics data could be used to evaluate optimal pool size and composition.
【CateGory Index】: R311
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