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《Journal of Jilin University(Medicine Edition)》 2011-04
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Estimation and projection of HIV epidemic among high-risk population in Jilin province

GUO Wei1,MENG Xiao-jun2,QIU Bai-hong1,MENG Xiang-dong1,WANG Lu2,QIN Qian-qian2,DING Zheng-wei2(1.Department of AIDS,Jilin Provincial Center of Disease Control and Prevention,Changchun 130062,China;2.Department of Epidemiology,National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, China Center of Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)  
Objective To estimate the number of people who lives with HIV and AIDS(PLWHA)in 2009 and the HIV epidemic trend in next six years(2010-2015) in Jilin province and provide evidence for HIV prevention and control.Methods The data from sentinel surveillance,case report,epidemiological survey and scientific lectures were used in Workbook method,Estimation and Projection Package and Asia Epidemic Model to estimate the number of HIV/AIDS and to project the HIV epidemic trend in Jilin province.Results By the end of 2009,it was estimated that among high-risk population the number of cumulative PLWHA was 4 388,the total prevalence of HIV was 0.024% in Jilin province and over 50% of PLWHA were men who had sex with men.HIV epidemic trend will be rising from 2010 to 2015 in Jilin province,where the trend among MSM will go upward markedly,the rising trend among IDU will be slowed down and the rising trend among FSW and their clients will be relatively slow.Conclusion The HIV epidemic in Jilin province was still at a lower level in 2009 and the sexual transmission was the main transmission way.MSM and clients of FSW are the focus population who must be given more attention in the future.
【Fund】: 吉林省卫生厅科研基金资助课题(2010ZC050)
【CateGory Index】: R512.91
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