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《Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)》 2009-01
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TRENDS OF ANNUAL NATURAL RUNOFF IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN

LI Chunhui1,2) ZHENG Xiaokang1) YANG Zhifeng1) PANG Aiping1) SHEN Nan1)(1)School of Environment;Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education: Beijing Normal University,100875,Beijing,China;2)Institute of Water and Soil Conservation,Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources;State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau: 712100,Yangling,Shanxi)  
Series of annual natural runoff recorded at 8 hydrological stations in the Yellow River basin(YRB),distributed at the main channel and the two most sub-basin,i.e.Weihe basin and Fenhe basin,from 1951 to 1998,are studied.The trends and their beginning points(or abrupt changes) of these series are detected with mann-kendall test(M-K test) and its progressive application according to Sneyers and Goossens.The results show that there are similar trends for different stations.The annual natural runoff series for stations other than Lanzhou,Hekouzhen and Longmen,have a downward tendency,with beginning points of the trend or abrupt changes occurring in the early or mid 1990s.However,their initial years of decrease are different.The decreasing trend of runoff has led to drying-up in lower reaches of the YRB,water resources scarcity crisis and deterioration of the ecosystem.The contributing factors for such trends have been analyzed.The trends of precipitation in the corresponding regions are similar to those of annual natural runoff.It is an important aspect for runoff decrease.In addition,human activities has changed the hydrological cycle and led to runoff reduction to a certain degree.Finally,two countermeasures for the runoff decrease are put forward.One is to develop water saving in irrigation region,and the other is to plan South-to-North water transfer projects for the YRB.However,the conflict between supply and demand will still exist for some time because of the water scarcity in the future.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50709002);; 教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金资助项目
【CateGory Index】: P333.1
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