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《Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)》 2010-03
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DROUGHT ANALYSIS DURING THE PAST 53 YEARS AND ITS PREDICTION FOR BAOJI CITY

LV Jiqiang MO Shuhong SHEN Bing( Key Lab of Northwest Water Resources and Environmental Ecology of MOE at XAUT, 710048, Xi’an )  
On the basis of monthly and annual precipitation in Baoji city from 1952 to 2004, the precipitation and drought were analyzed with frequency, trend analysis method and hydrological step point analysis in this paper. Then a threshold auto-regressive prediction model was established. The results indicated that the precipitation showed decreasing tendency during past 53 years. There was phrasal evolution characteristics in precipitation time series, and drought frequency increased after the 1990s. Precipitation resources slightly increased after 2000.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50779052);; 陕西省教育厅重点实验室研究计划资助项目(08JZ55)
【CateGory Index】: P333.1
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