Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Commercial Research》 2009-06
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

An Empirical Study on Inbound Tourism Demand Forecast Based on ARFIMA Model

WENG Gang-min,ZHENG Zhu-ye,LIU Yang (College of Economics and Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China)  
Tourist demand forecast is the basis and precondition of tourism planning,development and management.The primary aim of this paper is to incorporate ARFIMA into tourism forecasting,and to compare the accuracy of forecasts with SARIMA by RMSE,MAE and MAPE.The models are estimated by using the volume of monthly international tourist arrivals in China.The results show that ARFIMA model has more accuracy and can be used in tourism forecast.
【Fund】: 国家社会科学基金 项目编号:05KBS018;; 河北省社会科学基金项目 项目编号:HB07BYJ023
【CateGory Index】: F224;F592
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 2 Hits
1 HE Rong-guo,DENG Guo-he(College of Mathematics,Guangxi Normal University,Guilin,Guangxi,541004,China);The Model of Time Series Prediction of the Number of the Tourists in Guilin[J];Journal of Guangxi Academy of Sciences;2007-03
2 CAO Xia~1,CHANG Yu-chun~2 (()~1 Architecture and Urban Planning College,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;()~2 Institute of World Economy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China);A Study of B-J Method of Tourist Flow Prediction[J];Tourism Science;2006-01
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 2 Hits
1 LI Jun-yi1,MA Yao-feng1,YANG min2(1.School of Tourism and Environment Sciences,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi′an 710061,China;2.School of Management,Xi′an College of Finance an Economics,Xi′an 710061,China);A Literature Review on Demand Forecasting Methods in China′s Tourism[J];Commercial Research;2009-03
2 Liu Xiaolian(Wuzhou University,Wuzhou 543002,China);The Selection of Econometric Model on Forecasting the Guilin Tourist Number[J];Journal of Wuzhou University;2008-02
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 9 Hits
1 ZHU Xiao-hua~1,YANG Xiu-chun~2 (1.Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101; 2.Institute of Natural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100087,China);Forecast Models and Their Comparison on International Tourism Passenger Source of China[J];Geography and Geo-Information Science;2004-05
2 by FENG Xue-gang);A Research on the Shanghai Tourist Employment Capacity and Its Developments[J];Journal of East China Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences);2004-03
3 WANG Liangjian, YANG Wei, HE Jian, CHEN Yangle;A Quantitative Study of Tourism Regional Structure:A Case Study of Hunan Province[J];Tourism Science;2004-02
4 XUE Ying;On Formation and Evolvement of Tourist Transport Centers in Shanghai[J];Tourism Science;2004-02
5 JIA Tie fei, ZHANG Zhen guo (Shanghai Institute of Tourism, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China);Some Problems Concerning Urban Tourism Development in Shanghai[J];Tourism Science;2004-04
6 SUN Yu-huan(Department of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025, China);An Empirical Study on Seasonal Adjustment of the Foreign Exchange Revenue from China's Inbound Travel[J];Tourism Tribune;2006-07
7 LIU Song (Landscape Science and Tourism Department ,Tongji University,200092,Shanghai,P RC);DYNAMIC PREDICTION OF PASSENGER SOURCE OF TOU RISM DESTINATION[J];Journal of Qufu Normal University(Natural Science);2003-04
8 WEI Hai yan (College ot Tourism and Environmental Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, 710062 Xi′an, Shaanxi,China);Establish and forecast of four major countries overseas tourists in Shanghai city[J];JOURNAL OF SHAANXI NORMAL UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE EDITION);2000-01
9 Li Naiying Sun Gennian (1)Editorial Department of Journal,Shaanxi Normal University,710062,Xi′an; 2)College of Tourism and Environmental Science,Shaanxi Normal University,710062,Xi′an);Foundation and Significance of Background Trend Line of Xi′an City′s Abroad Tourism[J];;1998-04
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved