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《Commercial Research》 2009-06
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An Empirical Study on Inbound Tourism Demand Forecast Based on ARFIMA Model

WENG Gang-min,ZHENG Zhu-ye,LIU Yang (College of Economics and Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China)  
Tourist demand forecast is the basis and precondition of tourism planning,development and management.The primary aim of this paper is to incorporate ARFIMA into tourism forecasting,and to compare the accuracy of forecasts with SARIMA by RMSE,MAE and MAPE.The models are estimated by using the volume of monthly international tourist arrivals in China.The results show that ARFIMA model has more accuracy and can be used in tourism forecast.
【Fund】: 国家社会科学基金 项目编号:05KBS018;; 河北省社会科学基金项目 项目编号:HB07BYJ023
【CateGory Index】: F224;F592
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