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《Journal of Jiangxi Normal University (Natural Sciences Edition)》 2003-03
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Dynamic Prediction Model of Poyang Lake's Water Level

WAN Zhongying1.2,ZHONG Maosheng1,WANG Mingwen1,DING Shuliang1,HUANG Shue3 (1.Institute of Computer Science and Technology,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330027,China;2.Institute of Physiscs and Communication & Electronics,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330027,China;3.Jiangxi Scientific Research Institute of Meteorology,Nanchang 330046,China)  
The water of five rivers in Jiangxi flows into Poyang lake,and these five rivers are GanJang?FuHe?XinJiang?RaoHe and XiouHe.The precipitation of every place in Jiangxi province has great impact on Poyang lake's water level.Whole province occurred continuous heavy rain two times at the flood season in 1998.The second heavy rain caused flooding and became disaster,which brought the nation and people to great damage.For the purpose of prevention,we adopt stepwise regression to make relational Model with Poyang lake's Water Level according to the precipitation of the district in Poyang lake and upper stream.We carry out an F_test of the related hypotheses and use this model to forecast the water level of Poyang lake.The result indicated that the factors we had selected were rational,the precision of forecast was high,and the effect was good.So we think that the model is rational and feasible.
【Fund】: 国家科技部2000年度社会公益研究项目
【CateGory Index】: P338
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