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《Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition)》 2008-06
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Time Series Analysis of Surrounding Rock Pressure with Artificial Neural Networks

QIN Sheng-wu,CHEN Jian-pingCollege of Construction Engineering,Jilin University,Changchun 130026,China  
Surrounding rock pressure is a one of significant feedback information after tunnel excavation.Affected by excavation and other uncertain factors,the monitoring data of rock pressure is an unsmooth time series,which includes trend term and random part.The trend part of the data can be fitted with BP(back propagation) neural network and the random part is processed by a normal ARMA(auto regressive moving average) model.Combined with a progression arithmetic,time series analysis of rock pressure in a tunnel in Zhejiang Province is carried out.The results show that the method has a high prediction accuracy,is in a maximum relative error of 3.73%,and can be used in practical engineering.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40472136);; 教育部资助优秀年轻教师基金项目(120413133);; 吉林大学“985”计划项目(105213200500007);; 吉林大学“985工程”研究生创新基金资助项目(20080240)
【CateGory Index】: U452.12
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