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《Auto Industry Research》 2001-10
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Shout-Term Forecast and Model Selection for China Car Market Demand

Hu Hang  
The forecast difficulty has been increased due to the faster speed in economic growth in our country, the larger fluctuation in economic growth and the close relationship with our state macro-control policies. In 1994 and 1995, after the transition from seller's market to buyer's market had been realized in automotive market in our country, the market demand structure has been changed and the demand growth is pulled by both taxi vehicle demand and private family car demand. At pre- sent, the private family car market is still in the phase of its strength accumulation and the potential increase may be foreseen but can not forecast exactly. It is just difficult to forecast the private family car market, i. e. it is the max. variable in automotive mar- ket, the forecast emphasis should be placed in the short-term forecast for 1-2 years when forecasting the demand, the non- linear wt of car market demand in future should be attentioned when selecting the models.
【CateGory Index】: F723
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