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《Journal of Chengdu University of Technology(Science & Technology Edition)》 2011-01
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Estimation of earthquake magnitude and recurrence in terval of lager earthquake in the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault

YAN Liang1,LI Yong1,ZHOU Rong-jun2,LIU Yu——ping3,ZHANG Yi1,CHEN Hao1,QIAO Bao-cheng1,MA Bo-lin1 1.State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,Sichuan,China 2.Institute of Earthquake Engineering,Seismological Bureau of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan,China 3.Chengdu Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources,Chengdu 610082,Sichuan,China  
After the Ms8.0 great earthquake occurred in the Longmen Mountains on May 12th,2008,more and more geologists years focus attemtion on the seismic risk evaluation in the Longmen Mountains.In recent,to use quantitative and probability mathematical methods to assess the seismic risk in the active faults has been become a main research direction in the world.Based on studying the previous research achievements in active tectonic of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault in the Longmen Mountains,measuring the offset dates of the surface ruptures of the Wenchuan earthquake,and making activity segmentations to the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault,this paper uses the calculation methods for earthquake magnitude to assess the magnitudes of the coming earthquakes in the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault and estimate the recurrence intervals of the strong earthquakes in Longmen Mountains.The results show that the estimations of the magnitudes are 7.15±0.35 in the Xuankou-Xiaoyudong segmentation,7.36±0.33 in the Xiaoyudong-Leigu segmentation,7.30±0.39 in the Leigu-Shikan segmentation,7.62±0.41 in the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault belt for the coming earthquakes,and the estimation of recurrence interval of the strong earthquakes is 1310~3932 a in Longmen Mountains.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(49803013 40372084 40841010 40972083);; 中国地质调查局计划项目(1212010918010)
【CateGory Index】: P315.2
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