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《Journal of Changde Teachers University》 2003-02
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ZHAO Hua-xiong 1 PENG Bao-fa 2 DONG Ming-hui 2 CHEN Duan-lu 2 (1.Changde Hydro & Power Design Institute, Changde,Hunan,415000; 2.Economy & Environment Resource Department of Hunan University of Arts and Sciences,Changde,Hunan,415000)  
El Nino events deviated the subtropical zoneof the West Pacific Ocean and the precipitation zone of China in summer from north to south, and raised the capacity of precipitation in Changjiang River valley.El Nino events had a rhythm circle about 19 years. The year the fierce flood occurred in Dongting Lake Area had much correlation to that of generating El Nino events, and the possibility of occurring the fierce flood was 62.16% and the reliability is 80%.Therefore,the next El Nino year was forecasting factor of the yearoccur the fierce flood.
【Fund】: 湖南省社会科学基金重点课题 [0 2JD15 ];; 湖南省教育厅资助科研项目 [0 2C111、0 1C411]
【CateGory Index】: P338
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