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《中国经济学人(英文版)》 2010-06
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CGE Model Measures Carbon Duty's Impact on China's Exports

SHEN Keting LI Gang 1 Zhejiang Gongshang University 2 Institute of Industrial Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences  
Carbon-motivated border tax adjustment is a unilateral international trade policy aimed at compensating for the loss of competitiveness of carbon-intensive products due to carbon dioxide abatement actions.It violates fundamental principles of the UNFCCC and potentially conflicts with the core WTO principle of non-discrimination as reflected in the GATT Article Ⅰ and Article Ⅲ.Based on an analysis of carbon emissions embodied in China's industrial exports,this paper evaluates with a recursive dynamic CGE model the potential impacts of the carbon duty on China's industrial production, exports and employment.The results of a simulation show that with a tariff rate of US$30 or US$60 per ton of carbon,the output of China's industrial sectors would decline by 0.62-1.22 percent,exports by 3.53-6.95 percent,and employment by 1.22-2.39 percent.The authors suggest several measures of alleviating the impacts of carbon duty and put forward a carbon duty policy based on carbon consumption per capita as a countermeasure.
【CateGory Index】: F752.62;F205
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