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《Urban Environment & Urban Ecology》 2007-01
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Alternative Future of Urban Form Growing Simulation Basing on CA Model——The Scenario Analysis of Eastern Plain Area in Beijing

OU Jing-ming,WANG Ru-song,YANG Wen-rui,LI Feng(State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100085,China)  
In this article,based on the artificial-neural-network,the constrained CA model of Beijing urban expansion was built.By using this model,the urban form of the east plain of Beijing was forecasted in the next 50 years in three scenarios as a basis for the analytical comparison of different forms of urban growth.Then,using the simulative urban form of the east plain of Beijing in 2024 as a criterion,three different land use patterns were analyzed from three aspects-natural,social and economic ecological benefits.The systematic comparison of complex ecological benefit of three land use patterns provided firmy support to the urban land use decision-making.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金重点项目(70433001)
【CateGory Index】: X321
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