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《Urban Environment & Urban Ecology》 2010-03
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Prediction and Precaution of Heavy Metal Pollution Trend in Urban Soils of Changchun City

YANG Zhong-ping1,2,LU Wen-xi2,LONG Yu-qiao3,LIU Xin-rong1(1.College of Civil Engineering,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400045,China;2.College of Environment and Resources,Jilin University,Changchun 130026,China;3.Hydrology and Water Resources Department,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China)  
Based on the analysis of heavy metal pollution history in urban soil of Changchun,the accumulation rates and accelerations of heavy metals at present were roughly estimated,and a mathematic model of prediction and precaution on heavy metal pollution of soil were established under the modes of acceleration and uniformity,respectively.The results indicated that the accumulation rates of As,Cr and Pb in urban soil of Changchun were relatively slow under the mode of uniformity,and would not surpass the warning limit in the next 50 years.The concentrations of Hg,Cu,Zn and Cd in about 50% of the urban soil would surpass the warning limit in the next 20 to 50 years.Under the mode of acceleration,the concentrations of Hg,Cu,Zn and Cd in about separatively 80%,90%,65% and 60% of urban soil would surpass the warning limits in the next 20 to 50 years.It was worth noting that the area of polluted soil with As would increased rapidly from 1% to 11.65%.Furthermore,this rate would be rised to 58% in the next 20 to 50 years.There was a relatively higher environmental capacity for Cr and Pb in urban soil of Changchun at present and would not cause seriously environmental deterioration in the next 50 years.
【Fund】: 中国地质调查局项目(基[2005]011-08);; 中央高校基本科研业务费资助(CDJRC10200013)
【CateGory Index】: X53
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