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Application of the Theory of Gray System to Forecast the Dam Subsidence Forecasting

Zang Deyan(East China Institute of Geology, Jiangxi, 344000)  
In this paper. dam subsidence of the Qinshan nuclear power station is forecasted by using the gray system theory, meanwhile the new superseding the old data is established by making use of a few observation examples and variance tests show that the accuracy of residual comes to the first level. Therefore it's proved that the construction of model is simple and convenient, and the forecasting accuracy is high using the GM (1, 1) model to forecasting subsidence. It can be used in the adjustment and prediction for the deformation monitoring network.
【CateGory Index】: P229.5
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