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《Science of Surveying and Mapping》 2009-05
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Multi-parameter optimum combination model of predicting land demand for construction use of city

LUO Sheng(Information Engineering College,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430071,China)  
According to the intrinsic relationship between demand land for construction and socio-economic development indicators,a multi-parameter nonlinear model to forecast the demand for construction was presented.In the multi-parameter nonlinear model,population,GDP,financial expenditure and total investment in fixed assets,were selected as the independent variable,while construction land area was selected as the dependent variable.An improved optimum combination forecasting method was used to produce a multi-parameter nonlinear model.This method calculates the value of each coefficient based on the precision contribution of the single variable simulation model to the predict increments of construction land area.And then a correct coefficient is used to correct forecast results.As a result,construction land demand is satisfactorily obtained.The forecast of construction land in future could help the relative departments of government to plan lands utilization to avoid the waste of land resource.
【Fund】: 2006年“深圳市国有土地供应计划编制辅助支持系统”项目资助
【CateGory Index】: TU984.113
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