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《Acta Geodaetica Et Cartographic Sinica》 2001-02
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Integrating GIS with Cellular Automaton Model to Establish a New Approach for Spatio-temporal Process Simulation and Prediction

ZHANG Xian feng,CUI Wei hong (Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101,China)  
The functionality of spatio temporal analysis and modeling is a drive for Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to further applications in various applied fields and Digital Earth plan. However, currently commercial GIS systems lack those capabilities for spatio temporal distribution, prediction, and simulation of spatio temporal data. So more effective and powerful modeling methods need to be developed. Cellular Automaton Model (CA) provides GIS with a bottom to top spatio temporal modeling frame, which is composed of a fourfold: cells, states, neighbors and rules. The simplicity and flexibility make CA able to simulate a variety of behaviors of complex systems. In order to meet the needs of spatio temporal simulation under GIS environment, the standard CA is extended to GIS context about the concept of cells, system time and transition rules. Based on these extensions, several factors affecting urban evolution are simulated on a virtual city. Then Urban Landuse Evolution Simulation and Prediction Model (LESP) was established by integrating GIS with ECA. Finally, to take Baotou City as an example, LESP model was used to simulate Baotou City expansion process. The initial time is 1992 when land use data were acquired by aerial photography. The change data collected by differential GPS are used for model calibration. The appropriate extents of Baotou City development in 1998, 2008 and 2020 are simulated. The result of 1998 is consistent with the surveyed data with GPS. Thus, the established model can be used as a virtual lab for decision support in urban planning and land policy making.
【Fund】: 国家“九五”科技攻关!项目 ( 96-b0 2 -0 7)
【CateGory Index】: P208
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