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《Collected Essays on Finance and Economics》 2008-05
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A Positive Analysis of China's "Twin Surplus" from 1994 to 2007

LIU Qing-hui(Financial Study Institute of Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)  
By constructing a VAR model,we test monthly data from 1994 to 2007 of China's exchange reserve,inflow of FDI,surplus of processing trade and remain sum of deposit minus loan.Cointegration test shows that the four variables have the cointegration relationship with exchange reserve.Granger cause test indicates FDI,surplus of processing trade and remain sum of deposit minus loan are Granger cause of exchange reserve.Impulse function test shows that FDI,surplus of processing trade and remain sum of deposit minus loan impact exchange reserve positively and persistently.And variance decomposition test proves that surplus of processing trade contributes biggest share to the "twin surplus".VECM test shows that the short-run fluctuation of FDI,surplus of processing trade and remain sum of deposit minus loan significantly influence exchange reserve.Based on the analysis of quantity we propose policies for how to adjust China's "twin surplus".
【CateGory Index】: F832.6;F752.6;F224
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