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《Collected Essays on Finance and Economics》 2008-05
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A Positive Analysis of China's "Twin Surplus" from 1994 to 2007

LIU Qing-hui(Financial Study Institute of Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)  
By constructing a VAR model,we test monthly data from 1994 to 2007 of China's exchange reserve,inflow of FDI,surplus of processing trade and remain sum of deposit minus loan.Cointegration test shows that the four variables have the cointegration relationship with exchange reserve.Granger cause test indicates FDI,surplus of processing trade and remain sum of deposit minus loan are Granger cause of exchange reserve.Impulse function test shows that FDI,surplus of processing trade and remain sum of deposit minus loan impact exchange reserve positively and persistently.And variance decomposition test proves that surplus of processing trade contributes biggest share to the "twin surplus".VECM test shows that the short-run fluctuation of FDI,surplus of processing trade and remain sum of deposit minus loan significantly influence exchange reserve.Based on the analysis of quantity we propose policies for how to adjust China's "twin surplus".
【CateGory Index】: F832.6;F752.6;F224
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 3 Hits
1 Xu Shaoqiang1 Jiao Wu2;The Imbalance of Balance of Payments of China and Study on Strategic Adjustment Policies[J];Finance & Economics;2007-09
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【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 LU Feng~1 1 China Centre for Economic Research,Peking University;Policy Adjustments Required to Balance China's International Payments——A theoretical analysis of China's excess foreign exchange reserves[J];中国经济学人(英文版);2007-03
2 LIN Guijun University of International Business and Economics,100029 Ronald SCHRAMM Columbia University,10027;China's Saving/Investment Balance and Current Account Surplus[J];Finance & Trade Economics;2008-04
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1 Li Xueyan;Foreign Capital Inflow &Investing Abroad with Dual Surplus of Savings and Foreign Exchange[J];Studies of International Finance;2004-11
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