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《Resources and Enuironment In The Yangtza Basin》 2002-05
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PREDICTION OF URBAN BUILDING LAND IN CHONGQING CITY

CHEN Guo-jian\+\{1,2\},DIAO Cheng-tai\+2,HUANG Ming-xin\+2,LI Min\+2(1. Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,The Chinese Academy of Sciences,Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling 712100,China;2.School of Resources and Environment Sciences, Southwest China Normal University,Chongqing 400715,China)  
As the sole municipality directly under the Central Government in West China and the biggest center of economics, culture and merchandise trade in the upper reaches of Changjiang river, Chongqing will play a very important role in the future "the Great Development in West China". Chongqing is a typical mountainous City again with its terrains fiercely undulate,and its engineering geological conditions are very complicated, its construction is very difficulty and costly, so the development of urban construction in Chongqing is severely refrained. Besides, it was deeply affected by the national policy of urban construction.Its urban building land is always not sufficient , which is far away from its status and its role it played.Therefore we must speed the urban construction in Chongqing, put emphases on the urban construction planning and strengthen the construction of the basic utilities in Chongqing City. At first we must make scientific prediction on urban building land to provide a scientific proof for city planning. Start from the present actual situation of the urban building land in Chongqing City, this paper apply the analytical method of Grey System GM(1.1),which is used extensively, to predict the population of non-agriculture in Chongqing City proper and further calculate the urban population.On the basis of the possible levels of the urban building land per capita, it predict the future scale of urban building land in Chongqing City proper.
【Fund】: 重庆市国土局课题“重庆市城市化与城市用地关系研究”阶段性成果之一
【CateGory Index】: F293.2
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