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《Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin》 2005-05
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TRENDS AND ABRUPTION ANALYSIS ON THE DISCHARGE IN THE YANGTZE BASIN

QIN Nian-xiu~(1,2), JIANG Tong~1, XU Chong-yu~3(1.Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China;2.Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China;3.Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavagen 16, S-75236 Uppsala, Sweden)  
Discharge trends and abruption in the Yangtze Basin have been analyzed based on the monthly discharge data, and the Mann-Kendall statistical method was used to test the trend in change of the discharge. The results indicate that slight increase in trend has been detected in annual discharge since 1990s, but the trend is not significant and the distribution is uneven with the decrease in middle and upper reaches, and increase in lower reaches of the Yangtze Basin. According to the seasonal and monthly data, there is significant increase in trend in summer and winter, especially in July and January. The flood season discharge shows slight increase in trend, which may be one of the reasons leading to frequent flood occurence in 1990s. The analysis of the abruption reveals an abrupted change in 1926 on annual scale with the Mann-Kendall rank statistical test in Yichang and Hankou stations, which is somewhat coincident with the change of temperature and precipitation.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(历史时期长江中下游平原旱涝序列时空格局与风险评价No.40271112);; 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(长江中下游洪水孕灾环境变化、致灾机理与减灾对策 KZCX3-SW-331)
【CateGory Index】: P333
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