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《Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin》 2006-03
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APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS IN PREDICATION OF THE POPULATION——TAKING JIANGSU PROVINCE AS AN EXAMPLE

YANG Li-xia~(1,2),YANG Gui-shan~1,YUAN Shao-feng~3(1.Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology of The Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China;2.Graduate School of The Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100039,China;3.Department of Land Resources Management,College of Public Administration,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou 310035,China)  
The scale of population is considered as an important control index of urban planning and the land use planning.The rationality of the scale of population can affect not only development of economy and society,but also sustainable development of ecological environment.So it has great theory meaning and realistic meaning to exactly predict development trend of population and establish rational population layout.The paper dealt with Malthusian models、Logistic models and linear regression and used the data of Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook to predict gross population in Jiangsu Province in 2005~2020.Results show that three models fit well.But Malthusian models and Logistic models are better than linear regression according to residue errors which residue errors in two non-linear models are smaller and close,0.35% and 0.12% than 2.25% in linear regression in validating models.So the authors select the mean of prediction in two non-linear models as prediction results.Prediction results show gross population reaches to 76.95 million in 2010,79.19 million in 2020.
【Fund】: 国家发改委区域规划试点项目“长江三角洲区域规划研究”
【CateGory Index】: C924.2
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