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《Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin》 2008-04
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LONG Kai-sheng CHEN Li-gen LI Ming-yan (College of Public Administration,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China)  
The advance of industrialization and urbanization has a huge influence on quantity change in culti- vated land;however,difference exists about the influence mechanism of industrialization and urbanization on quantity changing rate of cultivated land.Vector auto regression model was built in this article,and ac- cording to the data of Jiangsu Province (1990~2005),the influence variation of industrialization and urban- ization on quantity changing rate of cultivated land was analyzed with the application of impulse response function and variance decomposition.It is shown that changing rate of cultivated land,industrialization and urbanization level show non-stationary changing trend,but the influences of industrialization and urbaniza- tion on the quantity changes of cultivated land are different with each other.Industrialization has a negative effect on changing rate of cultivated land;urbanization has a positive effect on this rate.At the same time, the influence of urbanization on quantity change in cultivated land will be greater than that produced by in- dustrialization,and the influence of urbanization will he more permanent than that of industrialization,indi- cating that urbanization plays an important role in changing quantity of cultivated land in the period of in- dustrialization and urbanization's soaring increase in Jiangsu.Therefore,considering the imbalance develop- ment of industrialization and urbanization in Jiangsu,the conclusion that controlling industrialization rea- sonably and advancing quality of urbanization will be greatly meaningful for cultivated land protection.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(70673073)
【CateGory Index】: F323.211
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