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《Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin》 2010-08
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LONG-TERM TREND OF RUNOFF IN MINJIANG BASIN AND ITS RESPONES TO CLIMATE CHANGE OVER TIBETAN PLATEAU

WANG Shun-jiu(Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Chengdu 610072,China)  
On the basis of climate and hydrology database from 1961to 2003,the Mann-Kendall test and linear trend method were used to detect the long-term trend of runoff in Zipingpu and Gaochang hydrological station in Minjiang Basin,and the temperature and precipitation over Tibetan Plateau.The response of characteristic of runoff in Minjiang Basin to temperature and precipitation over Tibetan Plateau was researched by using Pearson correlation analysis method.The result shows that:(1)As a whole,there was a decreasing trend in runoff in Zipingpu and Gaochang hydrological station in Minjiang Basin when there was an obvious increasing trend in temperature,while there was a weakly increasing trend in precipitation over Tibetan Plateau during the past 43years.The annual runoff in Zipingpu hydrological station showed a significant and continuous decrease with the 5%level of significance and the decreasing rate was-2.619 0 m3/s/year.The slope was-6.538 5m3/s/year in Gaochang hydrological station.The runoff in the 1960s and the late 1980swas increasing,but decreasing in the early 1970sand period from 1990to 2003.As for seasonal variation,the runoff reduction primarily took place in summer and autumn,but very small in spring.(2)As the temperature over Tibetan Plateau increased,the runoff in Zipingpu and Gaochang hydrological station in Minjiang Basin decreased.The correlation between precipitation over Tibetan Plateau and runoff in Minjiang Basin varied with different section of Minjiang River and different season,for example,there were significant correlation between precipitation over Tibetan Plateau and runoff in spring in Minjiang Basin,there was a weakly negatively correlated between precipitation over Tibetan Plateau and runoff in Zipingpu hydrological station in Minjiang Basin,and the precipitation over Tibetan Plateau have strong positive correlation with runoff in Gaochang hydrological station in Minjiang Basin.Besides,there was a time lag for the effect of climate change over Tibetan Plateau on runoff in Minjiang Basin.
【Fund】: 中国气象局气候变化专项项目“气候变化对金沙江流域径流水资源的影响(CCFS-09-19)”;中国气象局成都高原气象研究所基金项目“四川水资源变化对气候变化的响应关系研究(BROP200801)”资助
【CateGory Index】: TV121;P461
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