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《Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin》 2010-11
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TRENDS IN RUNOFF OF THE SOURCE REGION OF THE YANGTZE RIVER AND THE YELLOW RIVER FOR 21ST CENTURY

CHENG Zhi-gang1,LIU Xiao-dong2,FAN Guang-zhou1,BAI Ai-juan3 (1.Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;2.State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quatemary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Science,Xi'an 710075,China;3.College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China)  
By taking the source region of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River as research object,the suitability of large-scale semi-distributed hydrologic model(Variable Infiltration Capacity,VIC)was tested by using observed daily maximum ground temperature,daily minimum ground temperature and daily precipitation data of the source region of the Yangtze River,the Yellow River and their surrounding in 1980~ 1999.The results showed that VIC model was suitable to simulate the runoff of the source region of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River.The NASH coefficient and correlation coefficient of VIC in the source region of the Yangtze River was 0.853 3and 0.930 2,respectively,while that in the source region of the Yellow River was 0.889 3and 0.924 8,respectively.Then by using the validated large-scale distributed hy-drology model and high resolution dynamic downscaling meteorological forcing data,the possible trends in runoff of the source region of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River were analyzed under future climate warming.The average annual runoff of the source region of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River will increase by 8.58%and 9.19%in the future 30to 50years,respectively.In the future 80to 100years,it will increase by 17.16%and 7.21%.And relative to the annual precipitation of 2030~2049,the annual precipitation of 2080~2099will increase up 0.06mm/day,but the average annual runoff of the source of the Yellow River will reduce only by 1.98%in the next 50years.The variations of runoff in the source area of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River were analyzed by using the high resolution dynamic downscaling as meteorological input data for the future 30to 50years,based on four scenario simulations of the land use/ cover change.The impact of different vegetation cover type on runoff was compared.These results indicate that the runoff is the minimum at forest land,but that is the maximum at bare land.
【Fund】: 成都信息工程学院科研基金(KYTZ201006);; 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200706029);; 国家自然科学基金重大项目(40825008) 国家自然科学基金面上项目(40975020);; 中国气象局成都高原气象开放实验室基金课题(LPM2008025)
【CateGory Index】: TV12
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