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《Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin》 2013-05
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CHEN Shi1,GAO Chao1,2,HUANG Yin-lan3(1.College of Territorial Resources and Tourism,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241000,China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment,Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008,China;3.College of Geography and Environment Science,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua 321000,China)  
Global climatic change is one of the most complex challenges to human today,and global environmental change has a huge impact on social economic activities,agriculture environment and the ecological system.IPCC fourth climatic change assessment report said that the global surface temperature rose by 0.74 between 1906 and 2005,and the temperature increased significantly.China average surface temperature rises significantly in recent 100 years,and the warming range is about 0.5-0.8.The temperature rise directly leads to the change of the length of four seasons.The change of the starting date of four seasons and the change of the temperature is consistent.The different methods of warming statistics leads directly to the inconsistency of the amplitude of the warming.According to three different season dividing methods,such as the division of season by modern climatology,season average temperature and meteorology,the author made use of the observational data based on more than 2400 ground meteorological offices and stations issued by the national climate center,and established a set of data set(CN05.1) in grids of 0.25×0.25 longitude resolution,and then selected 26 lattice point temperature precipitation data in the Claohu basin and its surrounding between 1961 and 2010.The author also applied the interdecadal change,anomaly,regression analysis and Mann-Kendall method to analyze and compare the trends and characteristics of temperature and precipitation changes of three seasons in recent 50 years.The result showed that,to different seasons divided by three methods,when the change trend of temperature and precipitation was analyzed,the result of theirs was different,even quite obviously different.From the three different interdecadal change of spring air temperature in nearly 50 years,the air temperature of meteorological spring and Houwen spring was 0.9 higher than the temperature of climatic spring,and the temperature change of the spring analyzed by climatic spring was different.The comparison of summer temperature changes showed that the temperature of climatic summer turned on great fluctuation,which reflected the characteristics of today summer air temperature.The temperature of climatic fall showed stable rise,and the temperature of weather fall turned on large variation,whose trend was not obvious.Three kinds of winter air temperature had significant rise,among which the sudden change of the weather winter and climatic winter occurred in the early 1980s,while the change of Houwen winter occurred in the mid 1960s.All kinds of rainfall change trend of the same season was similar on the whole,but there were obvious differences in fluctuation range and mutation time between them.The reason of the phenomenon is that under the big background of global warming the days of spring and autumn become less,resulting in big differences of calculated data of each season,which affects the seasonal change trend level.Using meteorology seasonal division method can overthrow the statement of global warming successfully.Thus,climate change of the season should consider the actual temperature every year,and be analyzed by multiscale.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(41101035);; 教育部高校博士学科点专项科研基金(20113424120002);; 湖泊与环境国家重点实验室开放课题(2010SKL015);; 安徽省教育厅自然科学重点项目(KJ2010A154);; 安徽师范大学校级创新基金项目(2010CXJJ17)
【CateGory Index】: P467
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