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《Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin》 2015-06
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APPLICATION OF SPEI FOR THE CHANGES OF DROUGHT IN JIALING RIVER BASIN UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

YE Lei;ZHOU Jian-zhong;ZENG Xiao-fan;ZHANG Hai-rong;LU Peng;College of Hydropower &Information Engineering,Huazhong University of Science & Technology;Hubei Key Laboratory of Digital Valley Science and Technology,Huazhong University of Science and Technology;  
In order to scientifically analyze spatial and temporal changes of drought,this paper selects the Jialing river Basin as the research basin and SPI and SPEI indices are used as indices of drought.To analyze the spatial and temporal changes of drought in the Jialing River basin,both SPI and SPEI drought indices for time scales of 3,6,9 and 12 months are calculated first,based on observed monthly precipitation data and monthly average temperature data from the basin.The data covers the period from 1962 to 2010.Subsequently,the MK test is used to detect the trend of SPI and SPEI series.The SPI and SPEI indices of most stations are characterized by negative MK values for different time scales.Furthermore most of the stations pass significant test at95% confidence level,some of them even pass significant test at99%confidence level.The MK values of SPI and SPEI drought show that drought has an increasing trend in most of the basin.The spatial changes of drought show that significant drought increasing trend is detected by the MK values of both SPI and SPEI in the western and northern basin,while drought doesn't have obvious increasing trend in eastern basin,even several stations in eastern basin show a slight decreasing tendency for drought.Mathematically,the SPEI is very similar to the SPI,but it includes the role of temperature.The SPI and SPEI variations on different time scales also show that the Jialing River Basin has a more obvious increasing trend for drought on the large time scale.The SPI and SPEI indices show obvious differences in detecting spatial changes of drought trend for time scales of 3and 6 months.The drought trend detected by SPEI is more significant which shows temperature changes has an important influence on drought for small time scales.However,the difference in the SPI and SPEI indices is smaller for time scales of 9and 12 months which indicates that trend of drought on the large time scale is dominated by the precipitation mainly.In addition,for the same time scale,drought in the Jialing River basin shows a more severe increasing trend by applying SPEI index compared to SPI,which shows SPEI index considering the effects of temperature can test out the increasing trend of drought in a more effective way.Therefore,SPEI index is more suitable for the analysis of drought evolution characteristics of river basin under the condition of climate change.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金重点项目(51239004);国家自然科学基金(51309105)
【CateGory Index】: P333;P339
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