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《The Study of Finance and Economics》 2005-01
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Dynamic Finance Distress Prediction for Listed Companies in China

ZHANG Ming,CHING Tao (School of Accountancy,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433,China)  
This paper chooses ST (specially treated) companies listed in Chinese A-share markets as research sample over the period of 1998-2000, and non-ST firms are also selected as benchmark based on matching criteria of industry and asset size. First, with the help of logit regression method, a financial prediction model is constructed using financial ratios as explanatory variables. And then a comprehensive prediction model is set up by adding other variables such as the variable of cash management and the end variable of cash management. Some conclusions could be found: For the first year prior to special treatment, the financial ratio model is better than the comprehensive model while in the long-run prediction, the comprehensive model outperforms.
【Fund】: 国家社会科学基金项目(01BJY014)
【CateGory Index】: F275
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