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An Analysis of the Effect of Institutional Shocks on China's Business Cycle

DU Ting,PANG Dong,YANG Can(1.Economic School of Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,China; 2.Postdoctoral Program,China's Merchants Bank,Shenzhen,518040,China;3.Planning and Statistics Department of Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China)  
The reform of China's economic system has become one of the most profound,long-lasting and comprehensive shocks that China's macro economy has ever experienced.It has greatly influenced the moving characteristics of China's business cycle,which is tested in this paper with econometrical method.The paper also tests the correlation between the business variable and the three institutional shock variables which are degree of marketization,the level of privatization,and the extent of opening up to the outside.The results show that the institutional shocks have great influences on China's macro economy in terms of their effectiveness in deciding the direction and range of a business cycle.
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