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《Finance & Trade Economics》 2007-06
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Identifying the Turning Points and Its Characteristics of Business Cycles in China

GUO Qingwang, JIA Junxue & YANG Yunjie(Renmin University of China, 100872)  
This paper applies Gibbs sampling approach to estimate multivariate dynamic Markov-switching factor model of business cycle and analyzes the characteristics of business cycles as well as identifying the turning points. Our conclusions are as follows: (1) In the long run, business cycles presence the characteristics of co-movement and nonlinearity in China, economy fluctuated markedly and regimes switched frequently before the reform and opening up, while economy became more smoothing after the reform and opening up;(2) In the short run particularly since 1990’s, the evolution of business cycle became more smoothing with prominent characteristics of co-movement but characteristics of nonlinearity reduced.
【Fund】: 国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国财政金融安全”(05&ZD008);; 中国人民大学“985工程”重大攻关项目“中国公共产品的供给研究”(2006XNZD005)的阶段性成果 中国人民大学科学研究基金项目(06XNB002);; 教育部高等学校优秀青年教师奖资助
【CateGory Index】: F124;F224
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