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《Journal of Chongqing Normal University(Natural Science)》 2015-03
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System Dynamics Analysis and Scenarios Simulation of Urban Economy-Resource-Environment Development

ZHOU Lilei;GUAN Dongjie;YANG Hua;SU Weici;College of Geographical Science and Tourism,Chongqing Normal University;Chongqing Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Environmental Remote Sensing in Three Gorges Reservoir Area;Institute of Eco-Environment Remote Sensing in Three Gorges Reservoir;College of River Sea,Chongqing Jiaotong University;Institute of Mountain Resource,Guizhou Academy of Sciences;  
The coordinated development of Economy-Resources-Environment(ERE)is the key to sustainable development.As a municipality in the southwestern China,Chongqing's economic development is subjected to the constraints from resource and environment.How to solve these developmental bottlenecks and achieve the sustainable development of economy,resources,and environment is one of the most vital issues acquired at present.Based on the connotation and framework of sustainable development of urban ERE,this paper employs the theory and methodology of System Dynamics(SD)to deal with the constrained economic growth due to urban resource depletion and environmental degradation,in which resource,environment,and technology subsystems are combined with economy subsystem in a Cobb-Douglas production.At the same time,five scenarios of foundation,resources,environment,technology and economy are designed to compare the simulation results under the different scenarios.The results demonstrate that it is not workable to achieve the sustainable development merely by changing the subsystem,but the conversion of the mode of economic development can be the best solution for the sustainable development of Chongqing.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(No.41201546;No.41261038);; 国家十二五科技支撑计划专题(No.2011BAC02B02);国家十二五科技支撑计划项目(No.2012BAJ25B09);; 重庆市自然科学基金(No.cstc2012jjA20010)
【CateGory Index】: N941.3;F127;F205;X22
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