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《Chongqing Social Sciences》 2019-03
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Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Foreign Exchange Reserves, RMB Exchange Rate and Inflation Expectations

Cai Chunlin;Guo Xiaohe;School of Economics,East China Normal University;  
Using the SVAR model, this paper selects the monthly data from 2000 to 2018 and empirically examines the impact of foreign exchange reserves and RMB exchange rate shocks on China’s inflation expectations. The results show that the positive effect of the change of foreign exchange reserves on inflation expectation is relatively gentle but has a long-term effect, while the negative effect of RMB exchange rate change on inflation expectation is relatively strong but its long-term effect tends to be neutral; After the RMB exchange rate reform in 2005, the strength of the foreign exchange reserves and the RMB exchange rate’s interpretation of the inflation expectation fluctuations was higher than before the exchange rate reform, which to some extent demonstrated the effectiveness of the exchange rate formation mechanism reform.
【Fund】: 国家社会科学基金项目“上海自贸区扩容接轨国家自贸区战略研究”(15BGJ026)
【CateGory Index】: F832.6;F822.5
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