THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE EL—NINO AND THE PRECIPITATION ANOMALY AND THE DEVELOPMENT TREND OF THE FLOOD IN THE DONGTING LAKE AREA OF HUNAN PROVINCE
Duan Deyin (Hunan Institute of Meteorological Science)
According to the analysis of meteorological data,this paper makes a study of the relationship between the El—Nino and the rainfall anomaly.The result is that the El—Nino usually causes a decrease of precipitation so the drought happens easily in the same year,while the rainfall always increases and the flood easily takes place in the following year becausr of the El—Nino in the Dongting Lake area of Hunan Province.The El—Nino affects the rainfall by its influence on sub- tropical high pressure of the West Pacific.Then the paper gives the extra long—range forecast of the future climate during the past two years.The author predicted that in 1990 the waterlogging would happen at first and the drought would then take place,but the annual precipitation would be approximate to mormal,while there would be the great flood and the autumn drought in 1991. The development trend is that the damage caused by waterlogging will be steadily great with the unceasing reduction of the area of the Dongting Lake.
【CateGory Index】： P 459.1