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Critical protections assessment based on risk theory and event tree

BI Tian-shu,WANG Li-chun,XUE An-cheng,YANG Qi-xun (Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control under Ministry of Education,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)  
Studies have shown that the occurrence of blackout is closely related to the incorrect operation of relay protection.Upgrading protection system is an important way to reduce the probability of blackout and enhance the integrated reliability of power system.How to upgrade and which protection devices need to be improved is an urgent problem need to be addressed.To this end,an effective method to assess the critical protections is proposed in this paper.Firstly,a protection action event tree is established under the incorrect action probability models and the action logic of protection.Secondly,a protection importance degree index is defined based on the contribution to the integrated system risk caused by the incorrect action of protection.Finally,the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the operation process of protection.The protection importance degree sequence and critical protections are obtained by this method.It is prerequisite and basis for the rational and economical protection upgrading strategy.The simulation results on IEEE 39-bus test system illustrate the validity of this methodology.
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