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《Finance Forum》 2009-02
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Global Financial Crisis Deepens, China Struggles for 8% GDP Growth——Analysis and Outlook of Macro-economic and Financial Trend from 2008 to 2009

The Study Group, Urban Finance Research Institute, ICBC  
Developed economies will fall into comprehensive recession and the economic growth of emerging market will markedly slow down in 2009. Affected by the sharp decrease of foreign demand, China faces severe export situation, and the growth of real investment and industrial output is far from optimistic. In 2009, especially the first half of the year, China' s deflation reflects in both the financial level, such as the decreasing credit demand, and the real economy, represented by the over-capacity of industrial output resulting from imbalance between social demand and supply. The macro-control in 2009 will take expanding domestic demand as the basis and prevent the economy from declining too fast and sharply, so ensuring the 8% GDP growth comes into the first priority. Commercial banks must reinforce credit risk management during the course of augmenting credit support to escape the sharp decline of loan quality. Moreover, commercial banks must pay more attention to the liquidity risk and improve the operational earnings of funds.
【CateGory Index】: F124;F832
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