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《Urban Transport of China》 2009-01
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Improving Rail Transit Passenger Forecasting through Plan Auditing & Comprehensive Decision Making

Li Feng (Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning Center, Shenzhen 518040, Guangdong, China)  
Passenger forecasting plays an important role in the construction and development of rail transit systems. This paper first analyzes characteristics of short-term development of rail transit in Shenzhen, and further summarizes their implications to future development and volumes forecasting for rail transit proj- ects. While addressing technical issues generally seen in passen- ger volumes forecasting, the paper presents two approaches to improving rail transit passenger forecasting, i.e., passenger fore- cast and plan auditing, and comprehensive decision making based on forecasting results. The former taps into such issues as critical data verification, rail transit travel characteristics and sensitivity analyses; while the latter focuses on comprehensive decision making on rail transit system (including stations) scale, as well as operation scenarios. Finally, the paper offers sugges- tions on development mechanism for rail transit passenger fore- casting.
【CateGory Index】: U239.5;U293.13
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 2 Hits
1 Shen Jingyan (Beijing Urban Engineering Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 100037);Network Planning and Passenger Flow Prediction for Urban Rail Transit[J];Urban Rapid Rail Transit;2007-01
2 Jin Feng;Reasonable Length of an Urban Rail Transit Line[J];Urban Rapid Rail Transit;2008-04
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 8 Hits
1 Shen Jingyan (Beijing Urban Engineering Design & Research Institute Co., LTD, Beijing 100037, China);Forecasting and Application of Rail Transit Passenger Volumes[J];Urban Transport of China;2008-06
2 Li Dewei Lu Fang Han Yu(Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044);Compensation and Guiding Approaches for Passenger Flow in Mass Transit Railway[J];Urban Rapid Rail Transit;2008-02
3 Shen Jingyan(Beijing Urban Engineering Design and Research InstituteCo.,Ltd.,Beijing 100037);Discussion on the Length of an Urban Rail Transit Line[J];Urban Rapid Rail Transit;2008-04
4 Lei Lei Luo Xia(Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031);Discussion on the Reasonable Length of an Urban Rail Transit Line[J];Urban Rapid Rail Transit;2008-04
5 Zhan Keqiang(Tianjin Metro Corporation,Tianjin 300051);Network Planning Optimization for Tianjin Rail Transit[J];Urban Rapid Rail Transit;2008-05
6 An Shuanzhuang Wang Bo Li Xiaoxia(China Metro Engineering ConsultingCorporation, Beijing 100037);Inspiration for Rail Transit Passenger Flow Forecast from the Operation of Beijing Subway Line 5[J];Urban Rapid Rail Transit;2008-06
7 Jiang Yukun (Beijing Subway Design and Research Institute,Beijing,100082);Passenger Flow Forecast for Rail Transit Lines Extended to Suburb[J];Urban Rapid Rail Transit;2009-06
8 TIAN Geng (Beijing Institute of Electro-machining,Beijing 100083,China);Parallel Overhead Fast Road[J];Transport Standardization;2009-Z1
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 Jin Feng(Guangzhou Metro Corporation, Guangzhou 510030);On the Integration of Urban Rail Transit and City Planning[J];Urban Rapid Rail Transit;2008-01
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