Dynamic Input--output Models and Energy Forecasting
Zhang Zhongjun Zhang Qiren
INPUT-OUTPUT analysis has been widely used as an analytical tool since its development by W. W. Leontief. The static model is used for short run forecasting, economic planning, and the analysis of economic development. The use of dynamic input-output model,however, has received increased attention due to the current interest in the dynamic analysis of urban, transportation, environment, ecology as well as energy systems. This paper discusses the application of dynamic input-output models for the analysis of energy-economic system and related issues. The emphasis is on discussion of a general structure and theoretical characteristics of the dynamic input-output models and on their uses for energy forecasting. A new approach to dynamic energy forecasting based on the principle of turnpike optimality is proposed.