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《Journal of Agricultural University of Hebei》 2003-02
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Epidemic factors and predictive models for the disease caused by maize rough dwarf virus

MIAO Hongqin1,CHEN Xunzhen1,CAO Keqiang2,YANG Yanjie3,LI Shuangyue4,DI Dianping1(1.Institute of Plant Protection, Hebei Academy of Agricultural and Forestry, Baoding 071000, China; 2. College of Plant Protection, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding 071001, China; 3. General Plant Protection Station of Hebei,Shijiazhuang 050011, China; 4. Plant Protection Station of Xinji City, Xinji 052360, China)  
The disease caused by maize rough dwarf virus (MRDV) is the most important virus disease of maize in China. To control the disease effectively and economically, the main factors affecting the disease incidence and the predictive method are needed to find out. By analyzing the data from 1977 to 1984, (1) six factors were found out to be the main factors affecting MRDV occurring and spreading. They were the numbers and virus-borne rates of overwintering generation of the vector (Laodelphax striatellus fallen), the infected rates of winter wheat plants, the amount and times of rainfall in May and average maximum temperature from March to April. (2) Two predictive models for MRDV occurrence and spreading were developed based on the disease incidence over 8 years. They were Y=0.692+0.93V1+0.314V2+0.059V18 and Y=0.263+1.10V1+0.069V18. The numbers (V1) and virus-borne rates (V2) of overwintering generation of the vector and the total rainfall amount in May (V18) were found to be significant forecasters statistically and biologically. With experimental data of 1996-1999, those two models were validated. By comparing the predictive and the real disease intensities, the results support the feasibility of the models in the middle and the south parts of Hebei province. 
【Fund】: 河北省科学技术厅重点攻关项目资助(97220303D)
【CateGory Index】: S435.13
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