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《Fiscal Science》 2019-06
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The Impacts of Population Aging on Local Fiscal Sustainability——Empirical Analysis Based on Generational Overlap Model and Chinese City Panel Data

Liu Jianguo;Sun Qinying;  
Will population aging affect local fiscal sustainability? If so, what is its mechanism? In order to answer this question, this article first constructs a generational overlap model, deduces and analyzes the impact of population aging on local fiscal sustainability at the theoretical level, and then adopts equal proportion random sampling method to select 2000-2016 panel data of 40 prefecture-level China cities, analyze the impact of population aging on local fiscal sustainability from three aspects. The research shows that:(1) population aging is not conducive to the development of local fiscal sustainability;(2) labor participation rate, per capita consumption level and per capita GDP growth rate will promote the development of local fiscal sustainability, and the number of people participating in pension insurance will increase but its increase rate is not conducive to the development of local fiscal sustainability. Therefore, to promote local fiscal sustainability, we must solve the problems of labor, consumption, pension and economic growth.
【Fund】: 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“新丝绸之路经济带建设中资源丰裕省份‘资源诅咒’及其规避研究”(15XJC840004);; 2017年度甘肃省高校科研项目(2017A-041);; 兰州财经大学2017年度科研项目重点项目(lzufe2017B-07)
【CateGory Index】: F812.7;D669.6
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