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Application of grey system theory in prediction of collectable amounts of straw resource in Heilongjiang Province

CUI Shengxian1,XIE Guanghui1,DONG Renjie2(1.College of Agriculture and Biotechnology,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;2.Engineering College,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)  
Prediction of Collectable Amounts of Straw Resource is the foundation of energy planning and large-scale development and utilization of resources.First of all,Collectable Amounts of Straw Resource in 1990-2009 is estimated on the basis of residue to grain ratio and collection efficiency combined a variety of references published in 2006-2010.Then,gray relational analysis gave factors of the amount of crop straw.The results show that rural labor,crop acreage,the total power of Agriculture machinery and Consumption of agricultural Chemical Fertilizers are the main factors of the amount of crop straw can be collected.Finally,the comparision of accuracy of simulation of GM(1,1) forecasts and multiple regression models forecasting based on GM(1,1) prediction model show that prediction accuracy of multivariate regression model is higher than GM(1,1) prediction.The paper also predicts the amount of crop straw can be collected in 2010-2015 in Heilongjiang Province.
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