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《Journal of Northeast Normal University》 2007-01
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Application of fractal theory in forecasting the drought index in the west of Jilin Province

LI Hai-yi,TANG Jie,SI Ai(College of Environment and Resources,Jilin University,Changchun 130026,China)  
The degree of drought was reflected by drought index.The change of annual drought index could reflect the evolvement of climate in an area.There was a lack of precipitation and a lot of evaporation,the degree of drought was pricked up gradually in the west of Jilin Province.In this paper,on base of fractal theory,R/S analysis of drought index from 1951 to 2003 in the west of Jilin Province was carried out,and then the Hurst coefficient was calculated.The result showed that there was an obvious self-comparability on time sequence ofthe drought index in the area.After that,the drought indexes from 2004 to 2023 in this area were forecasted by the model of variable dimension fraction.The result showed that it would keep on drought in the future in the west of Jilin Province.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40572170)
【CateGory Index】: X43
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