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《Contemporary Finance & Economics》 2006-07
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The Effects and Autonomy of Monetary Policy in China from 1994 to 2004

SUN Hua-yu(University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029)  
This paper empirically examines the effects and autonomy of China's monetary policy using vector autoregressive model(VAR) and Granger causality methodology.The preliminary results based on quarterly data from 1994 to 2004 indicate that(1) the autonomy of China's monetary policy maintains systematically in the inspected period and(2)that interest rates are not the Granger cause for real GDP and CPI except that M0 Granger causes CPI.The reason for the weak effectiveness of China's monetary policy is not the exterior restriction with the old pegged exchange rate system but the internal factors which block the pipeline of monetary policy.Alternative strategies to improve the effect of monetary policy are to accelerate the reforms of the current mandatory bank settlement system and perfect managerial mechanism of enterprise to enhance the sensitiveness of market agencies to policies rather than to abandon the policy to maintain the yuan's basic stability.
【Fund】: 国家社会科学基金资助项目(05BJL056)
【CateGory Index】: F822.0
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