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《Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)》 2009-04
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Corporate Governance,Financial Character and Violation Forecast

ZHA Dao-Lin1,LEI Guang-Yong2(1.Faculty of Economy and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;2.Business School,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China)  
In order to help the investors recognize the illegal behavior of the listed companies and protect their interests,this paper selects all the listed companies which received public punishments from Shenzhen Stock Exchange,Shanghai Stock Exchange and Securities Regulatory Commission because of illegal information disclosure between 2001 and 2005 as researching samples.Based on the financial character and corporate governance,the paper sets up a forecast model about whether or not the listed company would get a public punishment.The identifying effect of the model is good,and it also indicates that the bigger the total asset turnover rate,the return on asset and the percentage of independent directors,the less likely the listed company would get a public punishment,if the auditing opinion is also a standard one.Besides,the product of return on asset and total asset turnover rate also can affect the predicting result.
【Fund】: 国家社会科学基金项目(07BJY029);; “教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划”项目(NCET-06-0144)
【CateGory Index】: F272;F275;F224
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