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《Seismological Research of Northeast China》 2005-01
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APPLICATION AND STUDY ON THE EXTREME VALUE THEORY IN SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS

ZHANG Wei-dong~1, LI Mao-lin~1, ZHANG Xiu-mei~2 WANG Jiu-yang~1 (1.Dalian Seismic Station ,Liaoning Dalian116012; 2.Earthquake Administration of Dalian Municipality, Liaoning Dalian 116012)  
This paper mainly discusses four kinds of distributive models for Ⅰ-Ⅲtype and revisionary Ⅰtype of extreme value method,and its discernible method,parameter estimation,test method,applied scope and forecast effect in the course of the earthquake application.Basic estimations are given in the deviative degree of all models with practical data and existent problem.Two kinds of the practical test method and some suggestions are given in the selection of model type.Thirteen kinds of formula with earthquake prediction and forecast method are given in this paper,too,for developing the applied scope of extreme value in seismic risk analysis.
【CateGory Index】: P315.9
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