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《Seismological Research of Northeast China》 2008-01
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STUDY ON THE PERIODICITY AND CORRELATION OF THE MODERATE-STRONG EARTHQUAKE FOR THE TAIWAN AND CHANG-NAN SEISMIC BELT

XIA Cheng-ming,ZHANG En-li,LI Hao(Earthquake Administration of Chuzhou Municipclity,Anhui Chuzhou 239000,China)  
According to the plate theory and on the basis of the analysis on the rellation of the geological structure between the Taiwan block and Changjiang River-Nanhuanghai Sea(the middle-lower reaches of the Changjiang River,the same bellow),the earthquakes on the Taiwan and Chang-Nan earthquake belt from 1970 to 2005 were strdied statistically by the extreme value theory.The recurrence period T(M),recurrence probability(P)and probability threshold value(Po).The fairly good correlations of the moderate-strong earthquakes in these two area were found by the contrast analysis to T(M).The considerable effects were obtained with the above mentioned reseach results for the risk,time and strength of ML≥5.0 earthquake on the Chang-Nan seismic belt.
【CateGory Index】: P315.5
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