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《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 1986-02
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A RENEWAL PROCESS MODEL OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE FOR SEISMIC HAZARD ESTIMATION

Wang Fu (Institute of Engineering Mechanics,State Seismological Bureau)  
In most seismic hazard analyses, the Poisson model is usually employed as the stochastic model of earthquake occurrence in time. The Poisson model, although mathematically simple, has some shortcomings, e.g., it possesses the memoryless property that is not consistent with the well-known elastic rebound theory of earthquake occurrence and it can not describe the clustering property of earthquakes in time.To overcome the shortcomings of the Poisson model,a more general renewal point process model which has independent and identically Gamma distributed interarrival times is developed.The method to estimate seismic risk in a region and at a site using this model is presented.As a numerical example, the YanBo seismic zone in North China is considered. Comparisons are made with the Poisson model. The results indicate that if the time period of the forecast is small, the Poisson model appears to overestimate the probability of large earthquake occurrence, but for long time forecast, the Poisson model will underestimate the probability of large earthquake occurrence.The model presented in this paper is general and can be adopted for other seismic regions.Using this model,the clustering property of earthquakes in time, the memory property of large earthquakes and the memoryless property of small earthquakes can be described.
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