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《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 1989-01
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SIMPLIFIED CALCULATION OF A TWO-STATE POISSON MODEL IN SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

Zuo Huiqiang and Chen Dasheng (Institute of Engineering Mechanics, SSB)  
In a seismic zone, seismicity usually could be divided into relative active period and relative inactive period. In this paper, a two-state Poisson model is applied to illustrate such kind of unstationary distribution of earthquake occurrence. The two-state Poisson model supposes that during relative active period and relative inactive period the occurrence of earthquake will follow Poisson stochastic process respectively; different states of seismicity will have different values of seismicity parameter, including their annual mean occurrence rate y, proportional factor of big and small earthquakes β and upper bound of earthquake magnitude and based on the characteristics of periodicity of seismicity in a seismic zone, the time of changing the state of seismicity which could only occur at some ranges of time could be estimated. In this paper, Beijing, Tianjing, and Tangshan were selected as the cxaplcs for calculating their probability exceedance of earthquake intensity in the future 50 years and 100 years to search the difference between the results of the traditional Poisson model and the proposed two-state Poisson model. It was found that the two-state Poisson model could reflect the future tendency of seismicity.
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