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A Variable Structure Predictive Algorithm For Times Series and Its Application to Real-time Transient Stability Prediction

Lu Zhilai Zhang Baohui Ha Hengxu(Xi'an Jiaotong University 710049 China)  
A variable structure predictive algorithm is proposed based on first swing instability and multi swing instability during the transient stability of power system Variable structure predictive method includes two parts First phasor change is obtained by polynomial approaching which utilizes synchronization multi parameter measurement At the same time,phasor is modified by intelligent control If polynomial have not extremum,it is unstable corresponding to first swing stability Then this paper emphasizes research multi swing instabilty It presented a hybrid learning algorithm based on neural network model to predict generator angles and generator electrical power output with several steps in advances The proposed method combines the temporal differences methods with BP algorithm with forgetting It helps to solve the computing problem incrementally in traditional BP algorithm on multi step predicting and has the ability of structural learning The proposed method is feasible by application to real time transient stability prediction of power systems Numerical simulation results have shown that the proposed method is effective and practically feasible
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