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《Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society》 2009-11
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Convergence Analysis and Comparison of Sequential and Nonsequential Monte-Carlo Simulation for Bulk Power System Reliability Assessment

Zhao Yuan1 Zhou Jiaqi1 Liu Zhihong2(1.State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology Chongqing University Chongqing 400044 China 2.Yangjiaping Power Supply Bureau of Chongqing Electric Company Chongqing 400050 China)  
The convergence performance of sequential and non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation for power grid reliability assessment is researched in detail.The probabilistic dependence relationship between computation accuracy(variance coefficient) and sample size(total years simulated or the sampling amount of states) of the two methods is analyzed.Based on the central limit theorem,the confidence interval formulae for computation accuracy and sample size of the two methods are derived,and then the conclusion is obtained: ①the convergence of sequential Monte Carlo simulation depends on the ratio of standard variance of reliability index to its expected value,the smaller the ratio,the better the convergence performance;②the convergence of non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation depends on the expected value of loss of load probability(LOLP),the larger the value,the faster the convergence.By means of the assessment analysis in RBTS,IEEE-RTS 79 and IEEE-RT S96 test systems,the correctness of the proposed method is verified.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(50607021);; 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2004CB217908)资助项目
【CateGory Index】: TM732
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Chinese Journal Full-text Database 7 Hits
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